Artificial Intelligence and Geopolitics: The New Global Arena of Technology and Critical Minerals

NATIONWIDE - SEPTEMBER 2025 - (USAnews.com) — In the evolving digital age, artificial intelligence (AI) is no longer just a technological tool, it's become a central element in geopolitical competition. AI has rapidly advanced from being a field of scientific inquiry to a driver of global power, with the control of resources like semiconductors, rare earths, and niobium influencing which nations will lead the digital future.

Fabiano Correia de Lima, a Brazilian technology executive with over 20 years of experience, highlights this shift in his study, From Generative AI to Critical Minerals: The Geopolitical Dimensions of Artificial Intelligence. In his research, he examines the growing importance of AI in global politics and the critical minerals, particularly those controlled by China, that are vital for its continued development.

Generative AI and the Shift from Predictive Analytics

For decades, AI was synonymous with predictive analytics, focused on analyzing data to forecast trends and optimize operations. However, the emergence of generative AI technologies, like ChatGPT, marks a profound shift. Generative AI, powered by large language models (LLMs), goes beyond predictive algorithms, enabling the creation of human-like text, images, and code at an unprecedented scale. This transformative technology, according to Correia de Lima, reshapes how knowledge, communication, and power are distributed globally.

“We are witnessing a paradigm shift,” Correia de Lima said. “AI has ceased to be just a technological support tool and has become part of the race for global leadership. Whoever controls the algorithms and the resources behind them will hold the keys to the coming decades.”

The dominance of Western-centric datasets and English language models in AI raises concerns about digital colonialism. Many fear that this may marginalize the Global South, limiting access to the digital future for vast swaths of the world.

Patents and Power: The New Geopolitical Race

In the competitive landscape of AI, patents are a key indicator of which nations are leading the charge. China, for instance, has already surpassed the United States in annual patent filings related to AI. This is not just a statistic, it is a reflection of China’s strategic positioning in the AI race.

The growing role of countries like China, Japan, South Korea, and Israel reflects an increasingly multipolar world. The once-dominant transatlantic duo of the U.S. and Europe no longer holds exclusive control over AI development. Instead, the field has broadened, with new centers of influence shaping the future of AI.

The Chip War: Semiconductors as Strategic Assets

While AI's software capabilities often grab the headlines, the hardware that powers these systems is just as critical. Semiconductors are the backbone of AI, enabling the vast computational power required for AI models. Companies like NVIDIA, TSMC, and ASML dominate this industry, and their products are essential for the development and deployment of AI.

“The control of chips is not just economic,” writes Correia de Lima. “It is strategic. Whoever dominates this sector determines the pace of artificial intelligence worldwide.”

As AI becomes an even more vital component of national security and economic strength, countries have begun using chip export restrictions and sanctions as geopolitical weapons. The U.S., for example, has imposed measures to limit China’s access to advanced chips, while China has responded with its own countermeasures. These moves reveal just how critical semiconductor dominance is to the global balance of power.

Rare Earths and Niobium: Brazil’s Geopolitical Advantage

One of the most intriguing aspects of Correia de Lima’s study is his integration of AI geopolitics with the geopolitics of critical minerals. Rare earths and niobium, two resources essential for AI development, are a focal point of the study.

China currently controls 80-90% of the world’s rare earth production and refining, giving it significant leverage over global supply chains. The U.S., EU, and Japan have all sought to diversify their sources of rare earths, but dependence on China remains high.

However, Brazil plays a pivotal role in the global mineral supply chain. While it may not dominate rare earth production, Brazil controls over 90% of the world’s niobium reserves. Niobium, essential in aerospace, defense, energy, and even cutting-edge fields like quantum computing, positions Brazil as a unique player in the global innovation ecosystem.

“Niobium is more than a mineral resource; it is a geopolitical asset that could reposition Brazil on the global innovation map,” says Correia de Lima. If Brazil leverages its mineral assets strategically, it could become a key player in both the digital and geopolitical future.

Competing Global Strategies for AI Development

As AI continues to evolve, nations are adopting different strategies to gain an edge in this high-stakes race:

• United States: The U.S. relies heavily on private-sector innovation but struggles with fragmented, sector-specific regulation.
  
  

• China: With a state-led strategy, China aims to dominate AI by 2030, integrating government, corporate, and military goals.
  
  

• European Union: The EU has become a leader in AI regulation, introducing frameworks like the General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR) and the AI Act.
  
  

• Brazil: Despite facing challenges, Brazil has initiated projects like the Brazilian Artificial Intelligence Strategy (EBIA) and the Brazilian Artificial Intelligence Plan (PBIA) to foster innovation while aligning with sustainability and sovereignty.
  
  

Correia de Lima suggests that Brazil, with its diplomatic leverage and mineral wealth, could carve out a unique position as a mediator between these major geopolitical blocs.

The Need for Inclusive AI Governance

As AI continues to shape the global order, Correia de Lima emphasizes the importance of inclusive, transparent, and accountable governance. Without robust governance structures, AI risks amplifying existing inequalities, creating more centralized power in the hands of a few countries and corporations.

“AI must be accompanied by structures that ensure transparency, equity, and accountability,” he argues. “Without them, instead of narrowing inequalities, it risks amplifying them.”

Conclusion: Brazil’s Moment in the Global AI Arena

AI, critical minerals, and semiconductor dominance have come together to form a new geopolitical battleground. Brazil, with its unique mineral resources, renewable energy potential, and diplomatic standing, has an opportunity to play a significant role in shaping the digital future. The country’s leaders must decide whether to remain a passive supplier or leverage its assets to take an active role in the global AI and technology landscape.

Correia de Lima’s research presents a powerful call to action: to not only innovate but to ensure that global power dynamics are shaped by fairness, transparency, and the inclusion of diverse voices in the development of AI and its governance.

About the Author

Fabiano Correia de Lima is a Brazilian technology executive with over 20 years of experience in leadership roles across diverse sectors, including finance, industry, food, pulp and paper, and global technology services. A recognized researcher, he holds a master’s degree in Big Data & Business Intelligence with specializations in AI, Software Engineering, and Information Security. He is currently a PhD applicant at leading U.S. universities and is the author of several studies on AI geopolitics and critical minerals.

For more on Fabiano Correia de Lima's work, contact: fabiano.clyma@gmail.com.